Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Kratrader Key Reference Area's For August 31,2011 (update)
Initial support to Initial resistance. This is why its important to not be subject to only RTH hours because you miss big moves like this. The market is a flow of information between globex and rth, and if your trading the E-Mini SP 500 futures your trading a continuous contract your trading both globex and rth. I know a lot of traders that only trade RTH hours and if you do, you miss moves like this. Its nice waking up and being +12 zone to zone.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
Todays Kratrader Key Reference Areas E-Mini SP 500 Futures
Today was a great example of how to enter the trend off my key reference areas, in a strongly trending market (still note: how my levels were respected on the push into them)
Morning Update
- September S&Ps this morning are trading up +14.70 points. The US stock market last Friday whipsawed higher and held its gains after Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the economy isn't deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus: Dow Jones +1.21%, S&P 500 +1.51%, Nasdaq Composite +2.49%. The Nasdaq posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that indicate economic optimism when he said "it may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals," (2) the unexpected upward revision to Q2 U.S. personal consumption (+0.4% versus the previously reported +0.2%, and (3) low stock valuations that prompted hedge fund managers to purchase stocks after recent declines left stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 12.7 times reported earnings, more than 20% below their 5-decade average.
- Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q1 U.S. GDP (+1.0% q/q annualized versus expectations of +1.1% q/q annualized), (2) the unexpected upward revision to the Q2 core PCE deflator which matched its highest level in 3-years (+2.2% q/q versus the originally reported +2.1% q/q), and (3) initial disappointment that Fed Chairman Bernanke failed to announce any immediate stimulus measures to bolster the economy.
- Pfizer (PFE) rose 1.2% in European trading after the company's Crizotinib drug won approval for treatment against lung cancer.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Gold got Parabolic, Swing Trade Short
Gold got to a parabolic state and this is how highs happen and people get trapped. The current low that formed today is the top of the channel that we have been riding and touching for close to 3 years (what was resistance = now support). We took out previous swing lows and completed all upside objectives. Are we ready to form the right shoulder? I think so 1826-1797 ish area I will have my head on a swivel anticipating a right shoulder to complete within those numbers, Targets will be the 1520 band of support that was left naked after the breakout. Which was previous area of acceptance. Only in this area will I consider taking any swing long positions. Also note the gap area, after we created that gap is when things got out of control. Good Trading Kratrader.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Market internals update
- NYSE volume 210M shares, about 2% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.6:1.
- NASDAQ volume 400M shares, about 14% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.1:1.
- VIX index -5.7% at just over 40.00
Global Economic News Calendar 8/23/11
Global Financial Calendar
| Tuesday 8/23/11 | |
| United States | |
| 0745 ET | ICSC (Int’l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales. |
| 0845 ET | Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan delivers keynote address at the Innovation Nation Forum in Washington D.C. |
| 0855 ET | Redbook weekly retailer sales. |
| 1000 ET | Jul new home sales expected -0.6% to 310,000, Jun -1.0% to 312,000. |
| 1000 ET | Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -4 to -5, Jul -4 to -1. |
| 1130 ET | Weekly 4-week T-bill auction. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $35 billion 2-year T-notes. |
| Japan | |
| 0200 ET | Revised Jul Japan machine tool orders, previous +34.6%. |
| 1950 ET | Jul Japan corporate service price index, Jun -0.7% y/y. |
| France | |
| 0300 ET | Aug French PMI manufacturing, Jul -2.0 to 50.5. |
| 0300 ET | Aug French PMI services, Jul -1.9 to 54.2. |
| Germany | |
| 0330 ET | Aug German PMI manufacturing expected -1.0 to 51.0, Jul -2.6 to 52.0. |
| 0330 ET | Aug German PMI services expected -0.9 to 52.0, Jul -3.8 to 52.9. |
| 0500 ET | Aug German ZEW economic sentiment expected -10.9 to -26.0, Jul -6.1 to -15.1. Aug ZEW current situation, Jul +3.0 to 90.6. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0400 ET | Aug Euro-Zone PMI composite expected -1.1 to 50.0, Jul -2.2 to 51.1. |
| 1000 ET | Aug Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected -0.8 to -12.0, Jul -1.5 to -11.2. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0600 ET | Aug UK CBI trends total orders expected -12, Jul -10. |
| Canada | |
| 0830 ET | Jun Canada retail sales expected +0.7% and +0.3% less autos, May +0.1% and +0.5% less autos. |
Global Economic News Calender Tuesday 8/23/11
Global Financial Calendar
| Tuesday 8/23/11 | |
| United States | |
| 0745 ET | ICSC (Int’l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales. |
| 0845 ET | Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan delivers keynote address at the Innovation Nation Forum in Washington D.C. |
| 0855 ET | Redbook weekly retailer sales. |
| 1000 ET | Jul new home sales expected -0.6% to 310,000, Jun -1.0% to 312,000. |
| 1000 ET | Aug Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -4 to -5, Jul -4 to -1. |
| 1130 ET | Weekly 4-week T-bill auction. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $35 billion 2-year T-notes. |
| Japan | |
| 0200 ET | Revised Jul Japan machine tool orders, previous +34.6%. |
| 1950 ET | Jul Japan corporate service price index, Jun -0.7% y/y. |
| France | |
| 0300 ET | Aug French PMI manufacturing, Jul -2.0 to 50.5. |
| 0300 ET | Aug French PMI services, Jul -1.9 to 54.2. |
| Germany | |
| 0330 ET | Aug German PMI manufacturing expected -1.0 to 51.0, Jul -2.6 to 52.0. |
| 0330 ET | Aug German PMI services expected -0.9 to 52.0, Jul -3.8 to 52.9. |
| 0500 ET | Aug German ZEW economic sentiment expected -10.9 to -26.0, Jul -6.1 to -15.1. Aug ZEW current situation, Jul +3.0 to 90.6. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0400 ET | Aug Euro-Zone PMI composite expected -1.1 to 50.0, Jul -2.2 to 51.1. |
| 1000 ET | Aug Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected -0.8 to -12.0, Jul -1.5 to -11.2. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0600 ET | Aug UK CBI trends total orders expected -12, Jul -10. |
| Canada | |
| 0830 ET | Jun Canada retail sales expected +0.7% and +0.3% less autos, May +0.1% and +0.5% less autos. |
Morning Call for Tuesday, August 23, 2011
- Global stocks this morning are trading higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.27% and Sep S&Ps up +16.00 points. Commodities are higher and Treasuries and the dollar are weaker as contraction in Chinese manufacturing eased and after European manufacturing held steady in Aug. The Aug Euro-Zone PMI composite was unchanged at 51.1, stronger than expectations of a -1.1 point decline to 50.0. Continued speculation that the Fed will announce further stimulus measures as soon as Friday to bolster the economy is lifting stock prices as well. Bank stocks rose led by a 2.7% gain in UBS AG after Switzerland's biggest bank said it will eliminate 3,500 jobs to trim costs. European stock prices pared their advance after German investor confidence fell more than expected this month. The Aug German ZEW economic sentiment slumped -22.5 to a 2-1/2 year low of -37.6, weaker than expectations of -10.9 to -26.0.
- Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.22%, China +1.56%, Australia +2.23%, South Korea +4.09%, India +0.96%. Asian stocks closed higher, led by a rally in exporters, on speculation Fed Chairman Bernanke this Friday will announce additional measures to shore up the U.S. economy. Asian stocks also received a boost as contraction in Chinese manufacturing eased when the Aug China HSBC flash PMI manufacturing index rose +0.5 to 49.8. Raw material and energy producers advanced after the PMI data was released on speculation of increased demand for commodities.
- September S&Ps this morning are trading up +16.00 points on better0than-expected manufacturing data in Europe and China. The US stock market yesterday moved higher as speculation Fed Chairman Bernanke will announce additional stimulus measures on Friday offset concern the European debt crisis will worsen after German Chancellor Merkel rejected the issuance of common Euro-Zone bonds: Dow Jones +0.34%, S&P 500 +0.03%, Nasdaq Composite +0.15%. Bullish factors included (1) speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke may signal this Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming of additional measures to stimulate the economy, (2) the unexpected improvement in the Jul Chicago National activity index which rose to its best level in 4 months (+0.32 to -0.06 versus expectations of -0.02 to -0.48), and (3) the statement from Germany's Bundesbank in its monthly report that it expects "robust" global economic growth next year even as Europe's sove reign debt crisis clouds the outlook.
- Bearish factors included (1) weakness in bank stocks on concern the European sovereign debt crisis will be prolonged and limit banks' earnings after German Chancellor Merkel rejected the issuance of Euro-Zone common bonds, (2) the action by Goldman Sachs to cut its 2011 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.5% from a previous estimate of 1.7% on signs the recovery has stalled, (3) the increase in the percentage of U.S. mortgages that are overdue by 1 month to its highest level in a year after Q2 mortgage delinquencies rose +0.11 q/q to 3.46% of all mortgages, and (4) a San Francisco Fed research paper that suggests aging baby boomers may hold down U.S. stock values for the next two decades as they sell their investments to finance retirement.
- Alcoa (AA) rose 2.2% and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gained 2.1% in European trading as metal prices climbed on stronger-than-expected manufacturing data in China and Europe.
- September 10-year T-notes this morning are down -14.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday finished lower after the stock market rallied and on supply pressures ahead of $99 billion in Treasury T-note auctions this week: TYU11 -6.5, FVU11 -3.2, EDZ11 -3.5. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected improvement in the Jul Chicago National activity index which rose to its best level in 4 months (+0.32 to -0.06 versus expectations of -0.02 to -0.48), (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stock prices rose, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 2-year T-notes on Tue. Bullish factors included (1) speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke this Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming will announce a QE3 program to help stimulate the economy and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign debt crisis will linger as credit default swaps to insure Euro-Zone government debt ros e after German Chancellor Merkel said issuance of euro-zone common bonds to help resolve the debt crisis are "the wrong answer."
- The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.20 yen and the euro/dollar +1.27 cents. The dollar index yesterday shed early losses and moved higher when the euro weakened after German Chancellor Merkel rejected the idea of using Euro-bonds to solve the European debt crisis: Dollar Index +0.085, USDJPY +0.253, EURUSD -0.00375. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in the euro after credit-default swaps to insure the government debts of Euro-Zone nations rose when German Chancellor Merkel said euro-zone common bonds are "the wrong answer," which fueled speculation that her resistance to the euro-bond plan for the European debt turmoil will prolong the debt crisis, and (2) weakness in the yen which fell to a 1-week low against the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Noda said the government will take decisive action if needed in foreign-exchange markets as he has become "more concerned" about the yen's appreciation. Bearish factors included (1) the action by Goldman Sachs to cut its 2011 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.5% from a previous estimate of 1.7% on signs the recovery has stalled and (2) speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke may signal this Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming of additional measures to stimulate the economy.
- Oct crude oil prices this morning are up +$1.23 a barrel and Oct gasoline is -0.45 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished mixed as the prospects for the restart of Libyan crude oil production offset concern that Hurricane Irene will strengthen as it nears the U.S. mainland: CLV11 +$2.01, RBV11 -0.33. Bearish factors included (1) a reversal in the dollar after the dollar index erased early losses and closed higher and (2) the action by Libyan rebels to oust the Qaddafi regime from Tripoli, which may signal and end to Libya's civil war and a resumption of Libyan crude production. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Iranian OPEC Governor Ali Khatibi who said that OPEC "will react" if crude prices continue to slump and (2) concern that Hurricane Irene will continue to strengthen as it nears the U.S and disrupt crude operations in and around the Gulf of Mexico.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): MDT-Medtronic (BEST earnings consensus $0.79), HNZ-HJ Heinz (0.76), AVGO-Avago Technologies Ltd. (0.66), MPEL-Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (0.08), WSM-Williams-Sonoma (0.36), HAIN-Hain Celestial Group (0.33), AZPN-Aspen Technology (-0.20), TSL-Trina Solar Ltd. (0.42).
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