Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Oil Long Trade Meets Objective (Step by Step)




















































Oil today has broken out of it's balance that has been forming the last few sessions on decent volume. Today's highs tested a well established trend-line and was respected. The Blue dotted falling channel is well established also. There are 2 scenarios that can unfold here....1) Being oil rallies up, and tests the top resistence of the channel, and consolidations right underneigh it before breaking out. Which would form a slanted inverted head and shoulders pattern I.E. the consolidation period would = right shoulder and thats what I will be bidding into. Or scenario 2) It touches the top of the channel and falls hard back down to the lower support channel into the Island Reversal bottom which I will defend long....IMO longs want to see a test of the Island Bottom Reversal which lines up exaclty with the bottom support of the channel. 

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Google Swing Short Trade

This is a longer term swing short trade IMO Google is testing the neckline of its smaller head and shoulders pattern which in return could be potentially be forming a right shoulder of a larger head and shoulders pattern. I like the Reward to Risk on This Trade.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

30 Year-Bond Underlying Trend-line Support

30 Year Bond Daily Chart Trying to hold a double bottom today against last months lows. If taken out we have underlying trend-line support matching up with Dec. Lows.

Intraday Chart E-Mini S&P 500 Futures


Thursday, February 2, 2012

Nasdaq Completes Upside Objective

 After a little under 1 month in time and (21 trading days) later the Nasdaq completes its upside objective today, after breaking out of its slanted inverted head and shoulders pattern that formed from the beginning of November to the end of December last year See Original Post Of Setup. This also coincides with decent resistance ahead (Right Shoulder breakdown from 2011's Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern. With the completion of the pattern and major resistance ahead at the gap, I find it very unlikely that the Nasdaq (though been strong) will continue to march further beyond this resistance zone without a retracment or pullback. Pullbacks are healthy and when we don't get them is when we see serious corrections based on the fear factor. I also spotted a similar setup in the $DJT (Dow Jones Transports) during this same time period which is also getting very close to completing it's upside objective though slowly running out of steam Dow Jones Transports Post. Its Setup was more of a Ascending Triangle coupled with a Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which has had a fantastic move for all the transpo stocks over the last 2 months $KSU $UNP $FDX $UPS $JBHT etc. To me these (2) Indices which I like to use them as (Indicators) are extremely extended and is away from fair value. Over the next few days or week I greatly believe that these (2) Indices could influence the potential outcome of the $SPX, $SPY, $ES_F, and Dow entering a potential mid-term high. Were already seeing volume divergences on the weekly time frame on the Weekly ES Chart . Though (innocent until proven guilty), if these (2) being the leaders, and dragging up the rest of Indexes starts to pullback or find some resistance, I believe the other indices will do the same. Protect profits, tighten stops.