GLD Gold's Attempt to Double Bottom Update

GLD Gold’s attempt to double bottom (Update)

February 27, 2014

As expected from my previous post, gold has become the flight to safety asset. With the S&P500 teetering with unchanged for the year, today finally the S&P500 closed at a (new all-time high) of 1854.36 (opening on the year at 1845.86) but with a current YTD performance of just +0.46%. As noted in the previous post a move above the small blue trend line beginning with the August 137.55 high was indeed the catalyst needed to push gold higher and begin to squeeze all the short sellers out of this ETF. Once price surpassed the small blue trend line initiating a long position on a break was how I played this to get long i.e. buy this ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). I entered the market at 121.73 buying 100 shares and we saw gold prices aggressively auction higher by 4.5% in 8 days of trading. At this point in the game gold prices are testing the (Early Confirmation) and attempting to cross the dark blue multimonth trend line going back to the October 4^th of 2012 high of 174.07 as mentioned in my previous post. This multimonth trend line discussed still remains as the (Early Confirmation) signal that the 114.68 gold lows are attempting to hold and that gold’s trend is apt to reverse with a price close above 137.55. At this point in the game we are seeing an immediate reaction/consolidation as anticipated at the multimonth (1^st Confirmation) trend line. Currently I’m up +5.32% on this position as the S&P500 is up a lousy +0.46%, so to protect my position (Profits) I’m going to trail up a stop limit order to protect myself if a correction try’s to occur. By doing so I eliminate 100% of my risk in result creating a risk free trade. As this this trade pans out over the next several weeks/months, I will continue to monitor the S&P500 and adjust my gold stop accordingly as I expect gold to push up, test and ultimately close above the 137.55 (2^nd Confirmation) high confirming that the 114.68 lows are in and my 160.00 measured move (target) is active.     

  

Yahoo Triggered (Update)

USO

Yahoo

Filled Closed NUGT $41.94 + 6.94 or +19.83%

Filled all out of NUGGET $NUGT long from 35.00 sold at 41.94 for +6.94 or +19.83%. With a 2 day trade (move) like this and not taking it off would be pure greed. With a 3x ETF taking your profits off the table when you have them is wise. I'm still long the GLD (Gold ETF as a position trade). Here's the gold link Also Initial Entry on NUGT Chart.

Ideas (Inverted Head & Shoulders) Twitter -20%

Matrix (Short Term Idea) +0.49 or 6.5%

For Friday the 31st of January the model likes Vivus Inc Com (VVUS) to the downside. A opening inside the WOP, test of the KRA warrants a reversal bias short side entry.

Boeing Fibonacci Sequence Limbo

Boeing seems to be in Fibonacci sequence limbo from the looks of the chart. The high made 10 days ago is 144.57 which if rounded to the closest Fibonacci number in the sequence is 144. When stocks as this move into all-time highs looking for and anticipating a pullback percentage can be beneficial. A 23.6% correction from the 144.57 highs = 34.11. 144.57-34.11 = 110.46. It's interesting to note that this 23.6% retracement percentage lines up just 1 point away from where this stock broke out from on 9/12/2019 at 109.50. Also the weekly 50 day moving average is also at 110.50 and the old all-time highs of 107.83 are in the area. A move under its current support level of 120.38 could get the momentum needed for a nice pullback to 110.50-107.83 to possibly look at this stock for a long entry.

Gold's Attempt to Double Bottom

With the recent market volatility (vix over 20) and selling pressure in the major indices, gold is subject to a decent move to the upside if the SP500 selling pressure persists as a flight to safety asset. A move above the small blue trend line beginning with the August 137.55 high, could be just the catalyst needed to move up and test the dark blue multimonth trend line going back to October 4 of 2012 with a 174.07 high. This trend line is major resistance so expecting a immediate reaction and few day consolidation after its initial test is possible. A move above this major trend line is the 1st confirmation that the dragon reversal bottoming pattern is underway. This will be were the 2nd round of stops will be as this ETF could trade up to the all-important 137.55 high. A close above 137.55 confirms that the double bottom is intact and creates a measured move target up to 160.00. One hurdle in the way to the 160.00 objective will be the 148.27 price which is the double bottom valley low that was confirmed on April 4 of 2013. This level should see a reaction on the initial test because it’s been naked ever since the 2 year double top was confirmed. All in all the flight to safety in this precious metal looks to be underway.

S&P 500 Outlook

Since Point #4 was reached in the S&P500 with a 1850.48 high Double Top that was confirmed on a close < 1812 and ultimately the 50 day moving average, this index has been in overall sell mode. Every bounce or green day has been aggressively sold, allowing fresh shorts to reload or any existing longs to exit at slightly better prices than the previous session. Ounce this index reached 1775 it proved to be a decent support level that the market desperately needed to hold but ultimately failed. Any rallies into this failure can be sold for a test of the 1730 level, which in my opinion is the next pit stop for this leg lower. Here I anticipate there to be responsive buyers present defending this area. This level is an old naked weekly high that was established last year and was never tested. < 1730 is when I get more concerned as there is no support till the last years naked October Island Reversal. This level is where I believe the market is headed in the short term and if we lost 1730 it could get there in a hurry. Important to note that the island is coincide ding with key market levels like 1665 is the 10% correction from the 1850.48 highs, along with point #5. A pullback in my opinion to this area seems logical and this area of confluence gives more confidence to begin initiating new longs in this market. All in all the markets have a few reasons to sell. #1 being the index was at the upper extreme of its range testing and building point #4. #2 was when the double top confirmed moving < 1812 and closing under the 50 day. And #3 was all the emerging markets (Turkey) nonsense along with a market that was up +30% last year. Keep open minded, be ready for anything and watch the 10% correction zone that will build point #5.